Final Look at A/B/U
Just a short final comparison to see what did the best in the earlier sets of MTG! Let’s just get right into it:
These are only the categories that beat the SP500 in that period. As you can see, the winners are pretty clear here: Alpha Black Lotus and A/B Dual lands stand far above everything else. It’s actually a little surprising how far of a gap there is here, especially for… Beta duals beating the Lotus so badly.
Now let’s do the first period before 2010:
So we see in the early years, A/B duals reign supreme and rares are at the bottom. Still many categories did very well compared to the index with beta duals returning about 10x market. That’s pretty crazy all things considered.
And now the most recent data:
Well one thing is clear here: Alpha is king now. The data for Black Lotus can tweak this curve one way or the other, but it won’t significantly impact the order.
I think this marks the market crossing into an investment mindset. You can see it more and more today with the mass printing, dwindling modern prices and product fatigue. Timmy is starting to understand that his fancy new 50$ card won’t be 50$ in a few years. It’s time to convert that into vintage if Timmy wants to still be invested in MTG but have his cards keep value.
And Alpha seems to be the best bet for now, predictably.
Does this mean Alpha enjoyed its time in the sun and it’s time for everything else to catch up, or is this fairly predictable order just the way to go from now on? Who knows.
Source/ Method for the MTG data: https://www.thepoxbox.com/posts/whats-my-card-worth
Other MTG related content:
Deconstructing Alpha - What rarities did the best in Alpha?
Deconstructing Beta / Unlimited - What rarities did the best in B/U?
Should I buy this collectible? - Another flowchart for Timmy
Investing in Collectibles - Is it dumb? - Initial look at the suspiciously high ROI of MTG
Comparing A/B/U - Which set did the best as a whole?
What’s a fair comparison? - Trying to fairly compare MTG to stocks
Omg should I grade this? - How rare is your card, really?
Magic Post-Covid market bloodbath - Coming off the 2021 cocaine high
Where do I sell my cards? - A flowchart for Timmy